In a new scientific paper and book, Tim McClanahan of the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and colleagues propose a novel framework for helping millions of people to cope with massive changes in their jobs, lives, and environment driven by the warming climate. Their proposal came as representatives of 194 nations gather in Durban, South Africa, on 28 November 2011 for the critical 17th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change. Based on a study of 1,500 households in 29 coastal communities fringing the east African coast and islands of the western Indian Ocean, the researchers developed a method for identifying the communities most vulnerable to climate change and prioritizing actions at local, national and international level to help them.

The researchers looked at exposure—how likely it was that a community would experience an extreme event caused by climate change, such as mass coral bleaching. Then they looked at the social components of people’s vulnerability—for example, whether they had alternative sources of food or employment. Finally, they looked at people’s capacities to adapt to the changes inflicted by a shifting climate. “Together these three factors define how vulnerable a community and individuals are to climate change,” adds McClanahan. “From there it is possible to identify the most appropriate actions that can be taken in the short, medium and long term at local, national and global level to reduce that vulnerability, and equip these communities to cope better with what will happen to them.” In their new paper in the journal Global Environmental Change, the researchers and their colleagues propose a systematic way to assess the vulnerability of coastal communities to loss of coral reefs and fish stocks due to climatic factors.

To read the paper, visit the Science Direct website or learn more about the book here.